BTC held up better than tech. BTC fell 2.47% from Monday’s open to Friday’s close, against 4.43% for the Nasdaq Composite and 1.99% for the S&P 500. ETH fell 4.81%.
Core CPI came in above expectations. Headline rose 0.6% m/m as expected and 3.7% y/y against 3.6%. Core rose 0.3% m/m against 0.2% and 2.6% y/y against 2.5%.
PPI posted its largest monthly gain since March 2022. Producer prices rose 1.3%, goods prices rose 2.6% for a series record, and crude oil inputs jumped 28.3%.
October Hike Odds End Below Pre-CPI Levels. Polymarket odds jumped from 22% to 48% on CPI, then fell to 13% after Warsh declined to signal the October 27–28 decision.
MSCI plans to remove treasury companies. The non-operating company screen takes effect at the November 30 close, and the final list is due November 11.
Implied vol held near its highs while leverage stayed low. BVIV peaked at 41.19 on CPI day and closed at 40.76. BTC-denominated open interest is averaging its lowest of any month this year.
BTC and ETH ETFs lost $548.5M. BTC lost $228.4M and ETH $320.1M, ETH’s third straight outflow week and $1B over three weeks.
BTC holds up better than tech
BTC fell 2.47% from Monday’s open to Friday’s close. Over the same window, the Nasdaq Composite fell 4.43% on an AI selloff, and the S&P 500 fell 1.99%. ETH fell 4.81%, more than the Nasdaq, breaking the relative strength against BTC we have tracked since July. Total crypto market cap fell 3.30% to $2.84T.
Wednesday’s CPI print hit both markets. BTC fell 2.05% and ETH 3.49% between 8am and 5pm ET. Sunday took another leg out of crypto, with BTC down 1.34% and ETH down 2.78%, as weekend index perps on Hyperliquid extended the weekly losses on the S&P and Nasdaq to 2.59% and 5.12%. Brent gained 5.64% to $107.07 on the Hyperliquid perp, and gold slipped 1.02% to $4,148.
Events of the week
Core CPI surprises
September CPI rose 0.6% m/m, in line with expectations, and 3.7% y/y against 3.6% expected and 3.4% in August. Gasoline rose 9.1% and accounted for more than half of the monthly increase. Energy overall rose 5.2% and is up 20.4% over twelve months, with gasoline up 34.2%.
The headline monthly gain was expected. Core, which excludes food and energy, was not. It rose 0.3% m/m against 0.2% expected and 2.6% y/y against 2.5% expected. In our September 14 issue, 2.4% annual core was the lowest reading since March 2021. One month later that low has reversed, and October hike odds more than doubled on the print.
PPI came in hotter
Producer prices rose 1.3% in September, the largest monthly gain since March 2022. Over the year they are up 6.3%, the fastest pace since December 2022. Goods prices rose 2.6%, the largest increase since 2009. Energy rose 10.8% and drove over 80% of that, and gasoline alone rose 20.3%. Core producer prices, which strip out food, energy and retail margins, rose 0.5% on the month and 5.0% on the year.
Upstream costs rose faster still. Raw material costs rose 8.4%, led by a 28.3% jump in crude oil. Diesel rose 21.0% and made up nearly half the increase in what businesses pay for semi-finished inputs. Companies are paying these costs now and have not yet passed them on to customers.
October hike odds turn volatile
Polymarket odds of an October hike jumped from 22% to 48% on Wednesday’s CPI print and settled near 30% within a day. Thursday’s hotter PPI print did not lift them. They fell to 13% after Warsh spoke at the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok, where he declined to comment on the October 27–28 meeting and said only that the Fed will deliver price stability.
The Fed’s quiet period began Saturday and runs through October 29, so no official will speak before the decision. The September dot plot still has 16 of 18 officials projecting at least one more hike this year, and October and December are the only meetings left.
MSCI moves against treasury companies
MSCI said on October 15 it will adopt its August framework barring non-operating companies from its Global Investable Market Indexes, with minor modifications, and end the interim measures for companies with digital assets at 50% or more of total assets.
The change takes effect with the November index review at the close of November 30. MSCI’s current list, using September 30 financials, puts Strategy, Yellow Cake and Metaplanet in line for deletion. SharpLink is among 17 companies on a watchlist that also includes SUI Group, TON Strategy and Solana Company.
The final list is due November 11. Exclusion would force passive MSCI trackers to sell MSTR. Reducing buying pressure for treasury companies that are in their trackers.
Volatility, positioning and leverage
BVIV opened the week at 39.75 and closed at 40.76, up 2.5%. It peaked at 41.19 on CPI day and gave back only 0.43 points through the rest of the week. Around August CPI, BVIV fell 3.38 points from its pre-print high as markets absorbed the data. This time vol held near its highs, and Thursday’s hotter PPI print didn’t set a new one. BVIV currently sits at 40.66, up 10.3% from 36.86 at the start of October.
Aggregate futures open interest is at $140B, down 7.8% from $151.9B in our September 28 issue and near its lowest level of October. Coin-denominated BTC open interest fell to a low of 619K BTC on October 11 before climbing back up to 646K (similar levels to the week prior). BTC-denominated OI is averaging less in October than in any month this year. Liquidations reached about $850M on October 15, roughly $681M of it on the long side.
ETF outflows extend to a second week
BTC and ETH ETFs lost $548.5M combined, a second consecutive negative week for both.
BTC: -$228.4M. There were three outflow days out of five. Monday lost $65.4M, all from IBIT. Tuesday took in $175.7M, led by FBTC’s $103.1M. CPI Wednesday lost $261.4M, the largest outflow day since October 7. Two weeks have now cost $907M. Year-to-date flows sit at +$355M, down from +$1,021M three weeks ago. Cumulative flows since launch are $56.95B.
ETH: -$320.1M. This is the third consecutive outflow week, with 13 of the last 15 sessions negative and $1B out over three weeks. It is the fourth-largest outflow week of 2026. Year-to-date flows fell to +$621M from a September 28 peak of +1,639M, so three weeks reversed 62% of 2026's inflows. Cumulative flows since launch are $12.97B.
Key events for the week ahead
Monday, October 19
US: Treasury’s comment deadline on its GENIUS Act stablecoin issuance rule.
Tuesday, October 20
US: The comment period closes on the SEC’s Regulation Crypto Assets proposal.
Wednesday, October 21
EIA crude inventories, 10:30am ET.
Thursday, October 22
US: Initial jobless claims, 8:30am ET. The prior reading was 199K and consensus is 200K.
Friday, October 23
US: S&P Global flash manufacturing and services PMIs, 9:45am ET. September’s readings were 55.9 for manufacturing and 58.8 for services.