BTC fell 2.83% to $77,785 and ETH fell 2.82% to $2,261. Both rose into Wednesday's close, then lost 5.53% and 5.22% by Friday's close. They bounced about 1% over the weekend.
Binance hacked for $6.3. It is the largest crypto theft on record. Binance set aside $6.34B of company funds to cover it, and about $3B has been frozen on-chain.
ICE plans to bring Hyperliquid perps onshore. It signed a definitive agreement with Trade[XYZ] and took a minority stake, pending regulatory approval. ICE deleted and reposted a softer X post on Saturday; the press release stayed unchanged.
The Fed held 10 to 2, with two dissents for a hike. Warsh refused to comment on December. Q3 GDP printed at 3.4%, above the 3.0% consensus.
ETFs reversed. BTC ETFs lost $202.4M after four inflow days. ETH ETFs posted a fifth straight outflow week at $431.4M.
Risk Off Into a Record Hack
BTC opened Monday at $80,053 and closed Sunday at $77,785, down 2.83%. ETH fell 2.82% to $2,261. Total crypto market cap ended Sunday at $2.68T.
Both assets rose into Wednesday. BTC closed at $81,260, up 1.51%, and ETH at $2,359, up 1.37%. The decline started before the hack. BTC was down 1.47% by Thursday at 8am ET, ahead of the GDP print and about 12 hours before funds began leaving Binance. It closed Thursday down 3.10% from Wednesday and hit a low of $76.3K on Friday.
Equities and gold also fell. The S&P 500 closed Friday’s cash session down 0.94% from Monday’s open and the Nasdaq Composite down 2.27%. On weekend futures they sat down 0.74% and 1.87% by Sunday. Gold fell 2.87% to $3,886, including a 3.27% drop on Friday alone. Brent rose 1.11% to $111.84, the only tracked asset up on the week.
Events of the Week
Binance loses $6.36B in the largest hack on record
Binance’s hot wallets were compromised at about 4:05pm ET on Thursday, a loss of about $6.3B in assets. Binance suspended withdrawals and, for a time, deposits. Its initial investigation pointed to a compromised laptop, with additional points of breach found since. It has found no evidence that wallet private keys leaked. The FBI attributed the theft to North Korea’s TraderTraitor unit, and Chainalysis and TRM Labs agree.
Binance says it will cover all losses and reports about 95% of affected assets replenished. Tether, Circle and Ripple froze funds, with about $3B frozen on-chain in total. Circle alone froze $823M. Withdrawals reopened in phases on Sunday, starting with BTC, then ETH and BSC. About 15 networks are live.
ICE plans to bring Hyperliquid perps to the US
On Thursday, ICE signed a definitive agreement with Trade[XYZ] to become the exclusive operator of US-regulated versions of its Hyperliquid-based perps across crypto, equities, commodities and FX, and took a minority stake in Trade[XYZ]. The retail venue will run separately from ICE's institutional futures and clearing business, with customers reaching it through FCMs, including ICE's joint venture with OKX. Nothing launches until regulators approve it. Stan Druckenmiller disclosed he is a Trade[XYZ] investor, and Elon Musk replied "interesting."
HYPE rose as much as 17% on Thursday and closed about 4% below its all-time high. PURR traded 111K options contracts, more than six times its 30-day average. On Saturday ICE deleted its X post on the deal and reposted it hours later with more conditional wording: the companies now "plan to bring" the perps, "subject to regulatory approvals." The press release stayed up unchanged. HYPE dipped on the deletion and recovered after the repost.
Fed holds 10 to 2 with two hawkish dissents
The Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday, as Polymarket priced at 95%. Beth Hammack and Lisa Cook dissented in favor of a 25bp hike, and it was Cook’s first dissent. Warsh gave no forward guidance and said politics played no role in the decision, six days before the midterms. December hike odds sit at 70% against 77% last issue.
Q3 GDP printed at 3.4% annualized on Thursday, above the 3.3% GDPNow estimate and the 3.0% consensus. Core PCE rose 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y, in line.
Strategy: preferred vote passes, CFO leaves
Preferred holders approved daily dividend accrual with 99.3% in favor. STRC moves to daily accrual from November 1, and STRF, STRK and STRD follow on January 1. STRC's rate stays at 12%. Q3 net income was $19.5B, almost all of it an unrealized fair-value gain on BTC, while software revenue fell 3%. Strategy has repurchased 20.98M STRC shares for $2.04B. CFO Andrew Kang leaves on November 5, and MSCI publishes its final list on November 11.
Elsewhere:
Coinbase Q3 revenue was $1.22B, down about 35% y/y. It returned to a GAAP profit on a $715M unrealized crypto gain, and the stock fell about 2% after hours. It also disclosed a vendor breach that exposed customer contact details.
DTCC’s tokenization service went live with JPMorgan and Citi.
Google launched MPC crypto custody for banks.
Treasury Secretary Bessent said crypto regulation will move ahead “with or without Congress.”
Volatility, Positioning and Leverage
BVIV closed at 42.14 on Monday, up from 41.13 at last issue's close. Its 30-day range is 37.37 to 44.68, and the high sits above the October 14 CPI-day high. Deribit's BTC DVOL drifted from 38.79 at Monday's open to 37.26 by Wednesday while traders waited on the FOMC. It jumped to 41.99 at Thursday's close, hit intraday highs of 42.27 on Thursday and 44.25 on Friday, and closed Sunday at 40.28, up 3.8% on the week.
Aggregate futures open interest is at $137.5B, against $138.3B last issue, down 0.6%. Dollar open interest held flat while crypto prices dipped, so total coin-denominated open interest rose. Aggregate coin-denominated BTC open interest is 680K, against 671K last issue.
Liquidations totaled $2.82B for the week, and longs took $2.08B of it, 74%. Shorts were hit first, with $256.9M liquidated on Tuesday and Wednesday as BTC rallied into the FOMC. Longs were then flushed, losing $1.71B on Thursday and Friday, more than last issue’s $1.51B across Thursday to Saturday. Binance alone accounted for $1.35B of the week’s total, about half.
BTC ETFs Reverse on Friday as ETH Outflows Deepen
BTC and ETH ETFs lost $633.8M combined, against +$80.5M last week.
BTC: -$202.4M. Flows ran positive for four straight days: $110.3M Monday, $176.0M Tuesday, $137.3M Wednesday and $17.2M Thursday. Friday then lost $643.2M, the largest single-day outflow since June 25 (-$691.7M). It was the first session after BTC closed below the $78.1K level we flagged last issue, 7% under its 20-day high, where ETF flows have historically flipped from inflows to outflows. BTC hit its weekly low of $76.3K the same day.
For the week, IBIT took in $176.9M while every other fund combined lost $379.3M. For October, IBIT sits at +$932.1M and the rest at -$1,448.0M, leaving the month at -$515.9M, the first outflow month since June. Year-to-date flows are +$453.9M, down from +$656.3M a week ago and a 2026 peak of +$3.20B on May 6.
ETH: -$431.4M. This is the fifth consecutive outflow week and the third largest of 2026, behind -$600.7M (week of January 19) and -$542.2M (week of October 5). Friday was the largest daily outflow since October 7 (-$155.7M). Since September 28, ETH ETFs have lost $1.65B, up from $1.22B last issue.
October lost $1.61B across 19 of 22 sessions, the largest monthly outflow since launch in July 2024, ahead of November 2025 (-$1.42B). Year-to-date flows turned negative on Friday at -$30.9M, down from +$400.5M a week ago and +$1.62B on September 25. ETHA has not posted an inflow in 24 sessions (20 outflow days, four flat), -$1.43B in total; its last inflow was $15.4M on September 28. It lost $391.1M this week. FETH was the only fund with inflows, taking in $63.1M, all of it Monday to Thursday.
Read on the Market
It was a chaotic week. The market went from the high of the Hyperliquid x ICE announcement to the biggest hack in history, both on the same Thursday. Add a hawkish FOMC, potential US-Iran escalation and midterms that look set for a Democratic victory, and BTC still fell only marginally more than the Nasdaq. It’s still holding above the 50 week moving average that currently sits at 75.5K.
The first few months after a midterm have historically been choppy to slightly bearish for BTC, but it has been higher 12 months later every time. Cautious optimism is the approach we’re taking. History favors BTC on a 12-month horizon, but expect near-term volatility, especially if the war escalates and the AI trade keeps weighing on risk assets.
Key Events for the Week Ahead
Tuesday, November 3
US: midterm elections. Results come in overnight into Wednesday and open the lame-duck window for CLARITY.
Australia: RBA decision. A 25bp hike to 4.85% is expected.
Wednesday, November 4
US: ADP payrolls and ISM services.
Thursday, November 5
UK: BoE decision, 7am ET. A hike to 4.00% is expected, with a 7 to 0 to 2 vote split forecast.
Friday, November 6
US: October jobs report, 8:30am ET. September added 29,000 jobs and unemployment was 4.2%.