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Eyes on the Market: Sustained Inflows

Published On 7 September 2026

  • Oil led everything. Brent rose 9.27% to $96.54 as US-Iran strikes resumed. BTC added 2.28% to $79,808, ETH 1.62% to $2,490.60, the S&P 0.40% and the Nasdaq 100 0.73%.
  • Waller signals dovish. Polymarket hike odds fell from 51% to 41% on Thursday's remarks. BTC wicked to $82,262 and closed the session up 5.67%.
  • Payrolls reversed it two days later. 162K against 53K consensus took hike odds back to 49%. BTC fell 2.95% and ETH 2.69%. 
  • The move is not levered. Aggregate OI is $139.7B, up 3.5% and the highest since mid-January. Coin-denominated BTC OI fell from 762.2K to 669.6K since mid-August, even as BTC moved from $63K to $80K.
  • ETFs took $1.2B, a third straight week above $1B, the first such run since July 2025. BTC drew $986.7M including $730.8M on September 3, the largest day since January 14. BTC ETFs AUM crossed $103.3B, 6.32% of supply.

Oil Leads the Week

BTC opened Monday at $78,031, hit a high of $82,262 on Thursday and closed Sunday at $79,808. Up 2.28% on the week. ETH gained 1.62% to $2,490.60. Total crypto market cap finished at $2.708T, slightly outperforming BTC as selected alts continue to rally.

Oil saw the largest move, rising 9.27% to $96.54 as the US and Iran conflict intensified during the week. The S&P 500 added 0.40% to 7,728.60 and the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.73% to 29,616. Gold slipped 0.60% to $4,470.50.

Events of the Week

US-Iran Strikes Resume

US-Iran strikes resumed for the first time in roughly a month after the 60-day ceasefire lapsed in mid-August. US forces disabled two Iranian tankers and destroyed a third on September 2, following IRGC ballistic missile fire at a US carrier and destroyer. Iran struck Kuwait with missiles and drones on September 3, escalating to a US Gulf ally, and Israel warned it would cripple Iranian infrastructure. Brent went from $88.32 to $95.15 on Tuesday, then plateaued between $95 and $97 for the rest of the week. 

Waller Gives Disinflation a Chance

Fed Governor Christopher Waller's prepared remarks went out on Thursday 8:30am ET. Inflation is still meaningfully above the 2% goal, he said, but the recent data finally show some signs of disinflation, and if that holds through the next two weeks he would back holding the funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. Treasury yields fell to session lows and hike odds on Polymarket dropped from about 51% to about 41%. BTC wicked to $82,262 before settling at $81,704, up 5.67%.

Hot Payroll Print

August payrolls came in at 162K against 53K consensus, three times the estimate, with unemployment at 4.1% in line. Strongest print since March and the first up-month in five after. Expectations of a hike reversed back up from 41% to 49%. BTC fell 2.95% and ETH 2.69%. 

Volatility, Positioning and Leverage

BVIV is up 5.4%, from 38.9 last week to 41.02. The metric is up 14% from the low of 35.81 that it hit on August 7. 

Aggregate futures open interest is $139.7B against $135B last issue, up 3.5% and the highest since mid-January. 24-hour volume is $136.4B, up 31%. BTC open interest in coin-denominated terms is the lowest it’s been since March 25. It’s been steadily falling since mid-August from 762.2K BTC to 669.6K BTC as BTC has risen from $63K to $80K. A reflection of how spot driven the recent move has been.

Coinglass's 24-hour long/short ratio is 49.04% / 50.96%. Annualized funding on Binance runs BTC near 4.7%, ETH 8.4%, SOL flat to slightly negative and HYPE 5.5%. ZEC funding is roughly -3.65% annualized and ZEC still gained 45% in the past week. The coins that lead are now moving on spot inflows.

ETF Flows Continue

BTC and ETH ETFs took $1.2B combined, a third consecutive week above $1B. The last stretch of this magnitude was July 2025.

BTC: $986.7M. September 3's $730.8M is the largest single day since January 14 and the third largest of 2026, behind January 14 at $840.6M and January 13 at $753.8M. BTC ETF AUM crossed $103.3B, 6.32% of supply. Year to date cumulative flows now sit at -$0.90B, from -$4.74B three weeks ago. Three weeks have erased 81% of the year's outflows. 

ETH: $215.3M. Flows fell 74% week on week from $815.7M. ETH captured 22% of BTC's dollar flow against 88% the prior week. Cumulative net flows are $13.19B and August closed at $1.84B. This breaks the ETH outperformance pattern we have tracked since late July, and the spot data agrees: ETH gained 1.62% against BTC's 2.28%. First week in a while where ETH lagged on both flow and price.

Key Events for the Week Ahead

Tuesday, September 8

  • US consumer credit (G.19), 3pm ET.

Wednesday, September 9

  • US NFIB small business optimism for August.

Thursday, September 10 

  • US PPI for August, 8:30am ET.
  • Europe: ECB rate decision, 8:15am ET.

Friday, September 11

  • US CPI for August, 8:30am ET.