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Delayed Clarity

Published On 11 August 2026

  • Equities led the rally. The S&P 500 rose 3.31% and the Nasdaq 4.53%. BTC rose 0.62% and ether fell 0.64%, despite $1.1B of net BTC & ETH ETF inflows.
  • CLARITY missed its deadline. Odds of passage this year hit an all-time low of 13% after the August 7 recess, then recovered to 25% once an August 8 motion set up a first vote once the Senate returns on September 14. Early July was 50%.
  • Payrolls fell 23K against an expected 80K increase. September hike odds dropped from a 63% peak to 41%. A hold now prices at 56%.
  • Strategy sold bitcoin for a second straight week. 1,690 BTC at $64,262, a 14.8% realised loss, with the full $108.6M going to buy back STRC. The era of Strategy as a relentless marginal buyer is over.
  • Crypto ETFs took $1.1B, the best week since April 13. On a relative basis, ETH has beaten BTC for three straight months.
  • Volatility is still low. DVOL 36.21 at an IV Percentile of 10.9, aggregate open interest up 3.6% to $115B, and Binance BTC funding at 1.3% annualised, 63% below last week.

Green Week Across Markets

The S&P 500 gained 3.31% and the Nasdaq gained 4.53% over the week. Total crypto market cap gained 0.32%. Ether lost 0.64%. Crypto stayed flat despite $1.1B of net inflows into BTC and ETH spot ETFs.

Bitcoin traded the whole week inside a $1,376 range and gave the entire gain back on Monday, closing at $63,952 against a August 3 open of $63,557. Brent had another volatile week. Dropping almost 5% to $79.36 on August 4, before bouncing back to $87.75 by Monday's close, up 5.27% on the week.

Delayed CLARITY, Uncertain Hikes and Saylor Selling

CLARITY Act

Pressing issues such as the Russia sanctions bill left little capacity for the Senate to discuss the CLARITY Act. Odds of the bill passing this year dropped to an all-time low of 13% after the August 7 recess deadline passed without any Senate floor vote.

That pessimism was short lived. A motion was filed on the morning of August 8 to ensure a first vote can happen almost immediately once the Senate returns on September 14. Odds are now back up to 25%, double what they were four days ago but half of what they were in early July.

Unexpectedly Soft July Payroll Result

Nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 against consensus predictions of an increase of 80,000. Unemployment fell to 4.1%, driven by lower workforce participation and not an increase in employment. The softer numbers make a September hike look less likely.

Three weeks ago the Fed held 9-3 with three dissents wanting a hike, and odds of a 25bp hike peaked at 63%. Those odds have fallen to 41%, and traders are pricing a 56% chance of another hold at the September FOMC.

Two Consecutive Weeks of Strategy Selling

On August 10, Strategy disclosed the sale of 1,690 BTC at an average of $64,262, raising $108.6M. That follows its August 3 disclosure of 1,638 BTC sold at an average of $63,957, raising $104.8M.

  • Average cost basis is $75,385. That is a realised loss of $11,123 per coin, 14.8%.
  • Holdings fall to 840,447 BTC against a total acquisition cost of $63.36B.
  • The full $108.6M from the second sale repurchased 1,152,020 STRC shares under the Digital Credit Securities Repurchase Program, bringing STRC to within $4.45 of par.
  • Separately, Strategy sold more than 6.58M MSTR shares through its at-the-market program for $653.1M and sent $650M to the USD reserve, which now stands at $4.65B.
  • 2026 sales to date: roughly 6,948 BTC.

Strategy has now sold BTC at a 15% loss, two weeks in a row, to hold a preferred share near par and build a dollar reserve. The framework is clearly built to avoid a disorderly unwind, but it confirms the era of Strategy adding relentless marginal demand is over.

Crypto Volatility Still Muted

In our previous issue, Deribit DVOL sat at 34.76. It declined further to 34.05 on August 8 at an IV Rank of 2.1 and an IV Percentile of 0.8, meaning BTC implied volatility was lower than 99.2% of all days the past year. DVOL now reads 36.21 with IV Rank 5.8 and IV Percentile 10.9, a slight increase from August 8 but still among the lowest of the year. Looking at equities and bonds, and measured against our last issue, VIX closed Monday at 15.46, down 3.3%, and MOVE at 75.46, down 9.1%.  

Aggregate open interest rose 3.6% to $115B against last week's $111.5B, the first real build in three weeks. The long/short ratio has shifted towards a more neutral 49.74% / 50.26% over the last 24 hours, against 47.4% long / 52.6% short last week. Monday cleared out the long side: $204.79M of liquidations in 24 hours, 71% of it long at $145.58M, across 70,998 accounts. Binance BTC 7-day funding dropped to 0.0250%, or 1.3% annualised, 63% below last week and the lowest of the past four weeks.

ETF Flows Flip Positive

After a month of lower net flows, US spot bitcoin and ETH ETFs saw a combined $1.1B of net flows the past week, the largest weekly total since April 13. BTC accounted for $865M of net inflows and ETH had $243M of inflows.

While BTC has larger absolute numbers, on a relative basis ETH has beaten BTC in ETF flows since June. It saw smaller outflows in June (-4.65% against -8.09%) and larger inflows in July (+3.19% against +0.34%). In May, we noted the general apathy institutions had towards ETH as net flows dwindled. We’re starting to see that trend shift over the last few weeks.

Key Events for the Week Ahead

Wednesday, August 12:

  • July US CPI 

Thursday, August 13:

  • July US PPI

Friday, August 14:

  • US Retail sales and University of Michigan consumer sentiment.